Washington is on Plan B

Normally girls use Plan B after they get F*cked. The latest news is that Washington may be taking the contraceptive.

Washington is on Plan B

Normally girls use Plan B after they get F*cked. The latest news is that Washington may be taking the contraceptive.

Ron Paul Vs. Bernanke Video

The sound and video doesn't line up correctly, sorry.

Webcam chat at Ustream

Ron Paul Vs. Bernanke Video

The sound and video doesn't line up correctly, sorry.

Webcam chat at Ustream

FOMC leaves interest rate unchanged

A crazy day to say the least. I'm kicking myself for covering my ZB short and selling my YM long so soon. There will always be another day. I really feel like shorting ZB on every bounce up, as I believe US Treasury yields will go up from here.

FED seeking Bailout

FOMC interest rate decision today

Today's the big day. Good luck people. I have no clue where interest rates will go, but I am expecting rates to stay unchanged.

FOMC week

We have the next FOMC meeting on Tuesday at 11:15am EST.
Most expect no change in interest rates.
I expect one swift move in the markets on Monday, which will be the setup day for Tuesday; which normally is a day filled with Chop and short bursts of volatility as the market reacts to the latest from the FOMC interest rate decision.


30yr bond and Euro


4 Central Banks Set to Announce This Week (from ForexFactory)
There are four central banks (AUD, USD, GBP & EUR) due to report this week on interest rate targets. Most analysts seem to be looking for no actual changes this time around but that does not mean that the market won't respond to the statements accompanying the releases. There is a great deal of sensitivity to these releases considering the recent surprise from the RBNZ and market volatility over the last week. Considering these reports, I see no reason why this volatility would decline this week.

Besides the releases from the central banks, the market is preparing for a continuation of last week's trend in favor of the USD. The affect here may be driven by a response to the J-curve. The J-curve describes the relationship a devalued currency has with its export growth. As the USD falls in value, cheaper exports from the US should rise in demand. This increase in export demand was somewhat in evidence with the preliminary GDP report from last week. Ultimately the curve predicts that demand for the exporting currency should eventually rise, which may be what is happening currently. This is an important week for the short term future of a stronger USD as it sits against resistance after failing to break highs from June and May on Friday. A break here could mean the longer term effects of the J-curve are starting to take effect and a strong USD trend is in play.

Emergency Order by FED

Emergency order by FED to stop naked short selling on FRE and FNM. Essentially, the FED is buying both these companies and they are trying to prevent any further damage to these stocks from illegal short sells.
I think we are at a market bottom here. The FED once again is coming in and saving the day.

Sell now?

Great article on a doomsday scenario that would put the US in a DEPRESSION if FRE and FNM continue there death spiral. Don't be a dumbass and buy these stocks just because they LOOK CHEAP. Things can always get cheaper, just like oil can always get more expensive.


I was listening to this old interview with Jim Rogers.
He says, abolish the Federal Reserve and tells Bernanke to resign. (Ron Paul has the same opinion, Which I agree with)
He says Recessions are like Forest Fires. They clean out the excess, and we start out fresh again. He's been short investment banks and long Ag commodities (the real commodities, not the bullshit stocks). Clearly people have been following what he's been saying.

From a technicians view point, the SPY is only at the 38% retrace from 2003-2007 time period. It may be getting time to bounce, but in the bigger picture, we may very likely be headed to the 61% retracement point.

FOMC day is non-event

Well, bond futures are left unchanged. It was all noise as I expected. I have a bullish bias on the short end of the bond futures for the next month or so.



I'm wondering what momentum trade will be the first to pay the piper.
Ag's
Solars
Miners
Oil
Did I forget any?
Airlines haven't really moved the last few weeks, just like Oil has stayed in its range between $132-138.

Interesting how India's index is already at new lows. Today was one of PIN's highest volume days.
What emerging markets are kicking butt?
Russia
Brazil

I closed out my JRCC short and made about $700. I held it long enough, Gesh!
BullRinger is still bullish on JRCC. I think I would rather day trade it personally, then try to hold it long term. Maybe sell some calendar calls on it, as there is a good premium.


Still holding AMR long. My long position on LEAP was originally a short position that I reversed. As soon as I reversed, the next day it went down and hasn't looked back. I will probably cut this loser soon. I learned a lesson from the LEAP trade. Don't reverse positions on a bad trade just because you got stopped out. Close the trade and MOVE ON.

FOMC day

TraderMike has gone fishing, which is probably a good thing to do right now unless your like Trader Stewie and making money everyday like its nothing.
For me, the best opportunity lies within the 1-2 days after the FOMC announcement. I'm hoping I can get a good trade on Thursday or Friday based on a pattern I've seen in the past surrounding FOMC announcements.

I think the FED is going to keep rates unchanged.
I'm expecting Bond Futures to rally and the stock market to selloff on the day of the FOMC announcement. 1-2 days after the announcement, I'm expecting Bond futures to return to about where they were before the announcement. No matter what happens, I'm expecting bond futures to return to about where they are today 1-2 days after the announcement. If bond futures don't move much, then I'll trade something else. I'll be keeping an eye on the Euro, Gold, and Crude Oil tomorrow as well. Tomorrow should be real interesting.
YM-

ZF bond Future-

Crazy Week Ahead

Next week we have the primary focuses on Oil and the FOMC interest rate decision.


Here are some interesting links-

Top Mutual Funds

Saudi Arabia willing to increase oil production if requested

Trading from Dubai (EliteTrader)

Chevron Halt Oil Production (EliteTrader)
Interesting Picture in this thread-(Nigerians have Hyenas as pets- Thats Hardcore)


International Equity Index Returns

What's in Price (Lonely Trader)

The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now

Stocks Vs Japanese Yen (what happened to the Yen Carry Trade)

Mid-Cap vs SPY(red) divergence

Day after FOMC

There seems to be a common pattern for the market to reverse directions the a day or two after the FOMC announcement, and that is what happened today. I held 150s of GS overnight and sold at the open at 192 for a break even trade. GS then climbed to as high as 199 before market close. Overall, I sucked bad today. Lost around $400 due to trying to short a low volume stock called FLS that never retraced after I shorted it. I should have used that stop I had originally planned, but I expected a pullback that never happened, also I lost my connection to IB which really pissed me off as I knew FLS was fucking me in the ass while I attempted to regain my connection.

Right about the time I took a snapshot of my monitor my connection to IB got disconnected and lasted for 45min, meanwhile FLS began to move against me.

Here's the stock I lost most my money on today (besides churning and losing money on ER2)

FSLR earnings are Faded

FSLR- The gap up- fade trade. FSLR had earnings this morning. Wish I faded this gap.
Gold long scalps (I partly based my long scalp on oil getting support)

My first trade on Crude was bad. My second scalp was decent.
Airlines seem to move the most right after the open.
Finally got a good signal on AAPL, I should have held half for my buy signal.

FOMC DAY

I'm keeping size down today as I'm not very good at trading FOMC days.

March 18 FOMC announcement

Here's the video- The top right chart is the Euro, bottom left is ZN (10yr bond future), and the right chart is ES (SP 500 future).



Sorry for the High Probability Trading watermark, I should have made it more transparent but I'm too busy to go back and fix it.Unfortunately my computer got the "Blue screen of death" while recording, and this is all the video I was able to recover. The one thing I can take away from today is that Vista sucks.

Let the Madness commence...

This week will go down in the history books.

BSC being bought by JPM for $2 bucks. GS to announce big losses. Fed emergency rate cuts 25bp on Sunday night. Overseas market down over 3-4%. This is only the beginning.

This is the exact type of crap you would expect going into FOMC WEEK.

We are setting up for an extreme bear raid, but be careful of Bogus moves when OPEX approaches.

You have been warned.

Be Prepared for the worst the next 12 Trading days

Tomorrow looks like the markets could be brutal if your a bull in the stock market with the way the Asian markets are looking. Everytime you think the market is going to crash, the FED comes in and saves the day. I think the FED is out of options. We are in a bear market and traders need to accept that fact. Perhaps this is another setup by the powers that be, and next week we could see the bottom with the decision from the FED on interest rates. The 30yr bond is approaching Jan 23rd lows of 4.10% yield. The next 12 Trading days I expect to be VERY volatile . Every market is swinging all over the place, from stocks, commodities, to forex. What the FED does next week is huge and the market seems to be setting up for a big move. I think bonds will keep going lower in their yields until we get closer to next weeks meeting, which means weakness in stocks. Tomorrow should be an interesting open. There's a good chance tomorrow we could break through the January lows. It would be the ultimate scenario to have the markets looking there worst so that the FED could pull off another miracle right before options expiration.


Oil ($110 today)
Various other commodities hitting all time highs recently
The Euro at $1.56 to USD
Stocks approaching multi-year lows

You have a choice- To trade or not to Trade.
Remember those stops. Don't over leverage. yourself. Trade with a Plan.
Good luck.

One last note- Congress Weighs Budget Plans
"Democrats are backing twin $3 trillion budgets for 2009 that would produce sizable surpluses in a few years and provide generous increases for many domestic programs, but only by assuming major tax increases when President Bush's tax cuts expire in about three years.

All three major presidential candidates planned to be on hand Thursday in the Senate for votes on taxes, a one-year ban on lawmakers' pet projects and a vote to pass the measure late in the day. The House also votes on Thursday." By Andrew Taylor, Associated Press Writer

Feb 20 Crude over $101

The run up in Crude Oil came unexpected, as many momentum rallies do. Now that Crude Oil is hitting all time highs we are hearing as many reports (good and bad) that fuel the attention and momentum to this move.



ES makes a surprise move up intraday before the FOMC minutes are released.
The stock indices are consolidating into a bear wedge pattern.




It seems to me that the bond traders already knew of the potential quick rate increases the FED was thinking of in the future. The FED said they were planning on cutting rates, and the emergency cut on Jan 22nd wasn't done to save the stock market. I think that's BS.