Mr. Mortgage video

It's been less then 2 months since we hit those fear/panic levels concerning the mortgage/bank mess. Last time I checked the dow was at 11,450, and the bottom in the market is ZERO.

House prices still have room to fall.

30yr bond and Mortgage Rate outlook

30 yr Bond Yields- I'm slightly bullish on long bond yields short term, and very bullish long term. After the housing mess, the FED's priority should be to fight inflation and to raise interest rates. Mortgage rates are already on the rise.
Long Term view of 30yr Bonds
Mortgage rates- I doubt we will see 30yr fixed mortgage rates go below 6% again.
FRE weekly Mortgage rates
From BankRate.com-
Mortgage X also has some great historical charts for interest rates

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) - The Russell has been relatively strong compared to DIA and SPY the last couple of weeks. I'm preferring intraday long trades on ER2 (IWM) over YM (DIA).
SPY- Volume is light on this pullback, which could make a bullish case for another bounce up in the market. One of my intraday setups is to look for pullbacks on light volume and to enter long, but this occurs during strong uptrends. Whether or not this is a buy setup will surely depend on the fate of the financial sector (XLF) and whether or not the oil sector holds up (XLE).
FXI- I'm pleased to see that they did a 3:1 stock split July 24. This will make it a better trading product in my opinion.

New Ron Paul Video

Ron Paul talks about the housing bailout bill just passed

Hat tip to Mr.Mortgage

Here is how the Senate Voted. Only 13 Republicans opposed the Bank/irresponsible borrower Bailout bill of 2008:

Grouped By Vote Position YEAs —72
Akaka (D-HI)
Alexander (R-TN)
Baucus (D-MT)
Bayh (D-IN)
Bennett (R-UT)
Biden (D-DE)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Brownback (R-KS)
Byrd (D-WV)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cardin (D-MD)
Casey (D-PA)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Clinton (D-NY)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN)
Collins (R-ME)
Conrad (D-ND)
Craig (R-ID)
Crapo (R-ID)
Dodd (D-CT)
Domenici (R-NM)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Gregg (R-NH)
Hagel (R-NE)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johnson (D-SD)
Kerry (D-MA)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Kohl (D-WI)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Levin (D-MI)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Lugar (R-IN)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCaskill (D-MO)
McConnell (R-KY)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Roberts (R-KS)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Salazar (D-CO)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Smith (R-OR)
Snowe (R-ME)
Specter (R-PA)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
Tester (D-MT)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Webb (D-VA)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wicker (R-MS)
Wyden (D-OR)

NAYs —13
Barrasso (R-WY)
Coburn (R-OK)
Corker (R-TN)
Cornyn (R-TX)
DeMint (R-SC)
Ensign (R-NV)
Enzi (R-WY)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)

Not Voting - 15
Allard (R-CO)
Bond (R-MO)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burr (R-NC)
Carper (D-DE)
Dole (R-NC)
Graham (R-SC)
Harkin (D-IA)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
***McCain (R-AZ)
Murray (D-WA)
***Obama (D-IL)
Warner (R-VA)

McCain and Obama didn't Vote as they had more important things to attend to.....

July 17 Mixed Trading after big rally

I kind of expected choppy action today after having a large bounce in the markets yesterday and it being the day before Options expire. I was up as much as 600, but then I lost some profits after I tried shorting(reversing from a long) too soon around the signal at 8:30am. I ended up losing about $180 on YM on that trade. The NYSE A/D ratio is slightly bullish today.



I got a 20 cent scalp on Crude Oil before we sold off. My scalp on Crude Oil was a long, and my trade on Gold was a short. Both positions would have been wrong if I were still holding them.



The bond futures are down again today. I expect Bond Yields to rise over the next few months. I'm not sure whats a better bet, (ie long term bonds or short term bonds). I think the FOMC will raise rates at the next meeting, and as noted in some of their FOMC minutes, they may raise rates aggressively to combat inflation and a crumbling US dollar. The effect of raising rates on Mortgage rates will probably make the housing market even worse. This is probably why Bernanke and Co have been holding rates steady, moreover; I imagine they see the housing market as a bigger threat to the US economy right now than the US dollars decline.