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Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts

Sunday, 22 August 2010

AUD/JPY Carry Trade and SP500 Correlation

There is a high correlation between the SP500 and AUD/JPY and also AUD/USD.
This chart shows SPY(SP500 vs AUD/JPY)


Australia's elections over the weekend has resulted in hung parliament, which will take some time to resolve once all the votes are counted. With Issues in Australia over elections we might see AUD/JPY selling (risk aversion/unwinding carry trade) and this will help the bears bring the SP500 down. We are also seeing continued strength in the USD/JPY and Treasuries which has caused weakness in Crude Oil and Copper due to the inverse correlation relationship. (Crude Oil and Metals like copper have high correlation to AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD).

The bear scenario for next week-
SELLING IN-AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY SP500, Crude Oil, and Copper
BUYING IN- JPY vs all currencies, 30yr bonds, and VIX

Here are some old Intermarket Correlation resources from ForexAutomaton the period 2002-2008-




Here are some links that look at Currency Correlation of the AUD/JPY vs SP500 and the current state of 30 year treasuries-

aud vs jpy
Presenting The New Correlation Regime: Treasury Butterflies And Risk | zero hedge
Visualizing The Past Of The Treasury Yield Curve, And Deconstructing The Great Confusion Surrounding Its Future | zero hedge
Will Tonight's AUD Slide Be The Start Of Another Major Market Selloff? | zero hedge
HomeTrader: SP500 update and AUDJPY , AUDCAD and EURUSD.
Lessons from the Pros - 06/15/2010 Issue - Stocks Article: Money for Leads?
ES-AUDJPY "Swiss Watch" Recoupling Means Money In The Bank For Divergence Chasers | zero hedge
... from IDEAtrader Suite
The Rational Move
News | Currency Trading News | Currency Quotes | Commentary | Analysts - FX 360>
Dollar Soars As S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex
The Strongest Forex Correlations | Kathy Lien | FX360.com
Commodity Currencies & SPX | Samadhi Research Investments
Forex @ DailyFX - Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations
Unwinding Of The AUD/JPY And Other Carry Trades Is Going To Take BHP Billiton Ever Lower - theyenguy -- Seeking Alpha
Chronic Deflation Will Send 30-Year Treasuries to 3% (Gary Shilling)
Australia election results point to hung parliament | World news | guardian.co.uk

AUD/JPY Carry Trade and SP500 Correlation

There is a high correlation between the SP500 and AUD/JPY and also AUD/USD.
This chart shows SPY(SP500 vs AUD/JPY)


Australia's elections over the weekend has resulted in hung parliament, which will take some time to resolve once all the votes are counted. With Issues in Australia over elections we might see AUD/JPY selling (risk aversion/unwinding carry trade) and this will help the bears bring the SP500 down. We are also seeing continued strength in the USD/JPY and Treasuries which has caused weakness in Crude Oil and Copper due to the inverse correlation relationship. (Crude Oil and Metals like copper have high correlation to AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD).

The bear scenario for next week-
SELLING IN-AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY SP500, Crude Oil, and Copper
BUYING IN- JPY vs all currencies, 30yr bonds, and VIX

Here are some old Intermarket Correlation resources from ForexAutomaton the period 2002-2008-




Here are some links that look at Currency Correlation of the AUD/JPY vs SP500 and the current state of 30 year treasuries-

aud vs jpy
Presenting The New Correlation Regime: Treasury Butterflies And Risk | zero hedge
Visualizing The Past Of The Treasury Yield Curve, And Deconstructing The Great Confusion Surrounding Its Future | zero hedge
Will Tonight's AUD Slide Be The Start Of Another Major Market Selloff? | zero hedge
HomeTrader: SP500 update and AUDJPY , AUDCAD and EURUSD.
Lessons from the Pros - 06/15/2010 Issue - Stocks Article: Money for Leads?
ES-AUDJPY "Swiss Watch" Recoupling Means Money In The Bank For Divergence Chasers | zero hedge
... from IDEAtrader Suite
The Rational Move
News | Currency Trading News | Currency Quotes | Commentary | Analysts - FX 360>
Dollar Soars As S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex
The Strongest Forex Correlations | Kathy Lien | FX360.com
Commodity Currencies & SPX | Samadhi Research Investments
Forex @ DailyFX - Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations
Unwinding Of The AUD/JPY And Other Carry Trades Is Going To Take BHP Billiton Ever Lower - theyenguy -- Seeking Alpha
Chronic Deflation Will Send 30-Year Treasuries to 3% (Gary Shilling)
Australia election results point to hung parliament | World news | guardian.co.uk

Monday, 19 March 2007

March 19 Trade Summary



Well I waited 3 hours for a good setup to occur, where all my markets that I watch lined up giving me a good signal. I went short at the correct time with an average price of 795.5, looking for a downside target of 793, however, I didn't exit after the prefered time frame of 3min when the market gave me a quick 1pt, and thus saw the price reverse on me, mainly due to continued heavy selling in JPY. I should have taken partial profits, but I decided to wait through -0.5pts of heat and look for a closer target around 794, and then when the market told me to, I coverd at 794.2. As I type this right now, it turns out my target of 793 would have been hit. However I would have had to hold on through some choppy trading action. With more experience in my trade execution and timing I should be able to scalp in the direction of the trend; however, I'm not yet ready. The markets look pretty choppy now, and I've made a good trade today, so I'm leaving on a good note.

Bad things today:
1.Didn't take partial profits on 3min volatility spike.
2.Didn't scalp in the wave.
3.Should have left 1 contract open at breakeven for profit target(actually no I shouldn't have, I should have scalped in the wave, because there is more profit potential).

Good things today:
1.Was patient and took a good setup based on my trading methodology.

I traded on the simulator this morning, using more of a mean reversion technique trading the inverse relationship between bonds, JPY, and the US stock market. Bonds have been fairly quiet today, and JPY has seen more selling with the US markets posting a small rally in response. The bond market looks like it is on heavy support, and we have FOMC minutes on Wedensday. I think the trend is still bearish even with todays rally; however, I will do as I always do and just wait for my trading signals to appear.

Learning about the bond market and the forex market I believe will help me in my trading. I'm starting to pay more attention and read about the other economies of the world and how interest rates and currencies affect the markets I trade. I listen to CNBC in the background while I trade, and I like to read and watch news videos on Bloomberg.
Other economic and market related websites I like to check out are:
Bill Cara
hamzeianalytics
headlinecharts
seekingalpha