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Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts

Tuesday, 7 October 2008

The bad trade

October 6, 2008. Chart of YM. Dow opens gap down, going down over 800pts intraday.
I'll tell you what happened. I was long 4 NQ contracts and short 1 YM contract. I was short 2 contracts on YM but I covered the additional contract on YM in the morning. My internet connection went out a little after I covered 1 contract on YM short. I waited to see what was going to happen because the market looked quiet and we bounced off the morning lows. The market kept dropping so I tried calling my broker but I was on hold for 10min and then I got disconnected for some reason. One hour before the market close my internet comes back on and I was stressed out. I decided to add to the YM short right near the lows when the Dow was down 800pts(even though I had a buy signal- market internals were like 300/1 to the downside, so I said screw it). I thought the market was going to fall -1000pts for the circuit breaker to kick in. Well, we reversed and I took a big loss on my YM short that I just added to and I sold my NQ long a little too soon for a loss as we rallied before the close. Lesson learned - trade 1 instrument, 1 direction, unless you plan on doing a longer term pair trade. My original plan was to hold the NQ/YM trade for a bounce, with the ability to add to the YM short if the market kept dropping (my internet went out so I couldn't add to the YM short unless I called my broker, I should have called sooner). My original thinking was that NQ would bounce more than YM because there would be more short covering in Tech names as opposed to financial names because of the short sell ban.

I hate Comcast.

Overall, I let emotions get to me on this trade and I miss-managed this trade very badly and took a big loss. I was up 7k in the last 2 weeks, but I lost all that plus another 3k. It may not seem like a big loss to some of you or compared to my January blow up, but it was a mistake that really set me back because I keep losing weeks worth of profits from making the same disastrous mistakes on crazy trading days like Monday.

The bad trade

October 6, 2008. Chart of YM. Dow opens gap down, going down over 800pts intraday.
I'll tell you what happened. I was long 4 NQ contracts and short 1 YM contract. I was short 2 contracts on YM but I covered the additional contract on YM in the morning. My internet connection went out a little after I covered 1 contract on YM short. I waited to see what was going to happen because the market looked quiet and we bounced off the morning lows. The market kept dropping so I tried calling my broker but I was on hold for 10min and then I got disconnected for some reason. One hour before the market close my internet comes back on and I was stressed out. I decided to add to the YM short right near the lows when the Dow was down 800pts(even though I had a buy signal- market internals were like 300/1 to the downside, so I said screw it). I thought the market was going to fall -1000pts for the circuit breaker to kick in. Well, we reversed and I took a big loss on my YM short that I just added to and I sold my NQ long a little too soon for a loss as we rallied before the close. Lesson learned - trade 1 instrument, 1 direction, unless you plan on doing a longer term pair trade. My original plan was to hold the NQ/YM trade for a bounce, with the ability to add to the YM short if the market kept dropping (my internet went out so I couldn't add to the YM short unless I called my broker, I should have called sooner). My original thinking was that NQ would bounce more than YM because there would be more short covering in Tech names as opposed to financial names because of the short sell ban.

I hate Comcast.

Overall, I let emotions get to me on this trade and I miss-managed this trade very badly and took a big loss. I was up 7k in the last 2 weeks, but I lost all that plus another 3k. It may not seem like a big loss to some of you or compared to my January blow up, but it was a mistake that really set me back because I keep losing weeks worth of profits from making the same disastrous mistakes on crazy trading days like Monday.

Wednesday, 16 July 2008

Volatility Warning

Apparently the Markets have been volatile lately.

Wednesday, 4 April 2007

April 4 Trade summary



Well I traded the first 2 hours today, then came back during lunch time for some scalping. The key theme today was exiting too soon on my positions. Like I keep saying, with more experience I'll get better at this. Crude oil and ZN had some nice setups this morning.

Bad things today-
1.Exited too soon, should have left 1 contract open on NQ.
2.Exited 30 seconds too soon on QM, I was using a time stop, and my buzzer was going off so I exited QM right before it shot up 25cents.

Good things today-
1.Noticed a nice relationhip between NYSE A/D and NYSE TICK that I may start using more as part of my strategy.

Market observations-
I decided to go long NQ instead of YM today because SMH was showing strength and NQ was the more bullish of the 2 futures contracts. There was an inverse bond and equity relationship premarket on the British sailor news this morning. Volatility is declining so I'm done for the day. I'm going to work on another post about some setups I've seen lately.

Often times when XLE and crude oil are weak you see an inverse relationship between XLE and SMH. XLE saw selling at market open due to Crude oil selling, while SMH saw buying, giving the more heavily weighted tech based index (NQ) more bullish strength compared to the other indices. For a little more information about the relationship between crude oil and the semiconductors index check out one of my older posts "What do OIL, GOLD, and TECHNOLOGY STOCK's have in common?" Here is what I saw between NQ and SMH this morning.

Wednesday, 14 March 2007

March 14 Trade Summary




Well this morning showed some great volatility and I was in the zone. I had no fear or flight or fight responses today when trading, it was all gravy. What happened, and what made the difference today??
In one word: BONDS
I've been missing out on the the best indicator of all that I just recently started watching this last week, and today it was a beauty. The reverse correlation between the stock indices and ZN/ZF is the best indicator for spotting reversals "CURRENTLY", especially when you see volume piling up in opposite directions. If you also watch Yen/US dollar, you can see the same pattern, with the yen/us dollar being a leading indicator for some of todays action.
I'm done trading today, I'm not in the zone any longer, so I'm not getting back in. I'm taking the money and running.
I made a video from this morning, which is going to be great to watch.
I also made the decision last night to do away with all of my indicators. The only indicators I need is price and volume. So, I'm still using volume profile and VWAP, everything else I see no use for.
I noticed today my eyes were glued to ZN, ES, JPY, and ER2. I occasionally glanced at NYSE A/D and my SPY chart which shows block trades.
What did I do wrong today:
1.I bought YM and didn't exit for a quick loser, instead I let the trade take a large negative drift of 50pts, only to later make 30pts in profit, it ended up going 120pts my way.
2.I bought ER2 1 tick away from the low at 667.8, and put in a quick scalp profit and exited for only +0.7pt in about 30seconds, Sounds good right,,,NOPE,,,,,,, it ran 14pts. That is really hard to think about. I missed the forest for the tree leaf so to speak.
3.I should have gunned my ER2 long trade, instead I just kept my YM long(I was thinking I didn't want to be leveraged up to much in one direction)
4.I exited my biggest winner for the day on ER2 for $300 less because I moved my profit target, I admit, I got shaken out. When My original target was hit, the price reversed and made a new low.
What did I do right:
1.I was focused on what mattered, I didn't hesistate, and I stayed true to my conviction on my loser ym trade turned winner(ZN was putting in a double top, that's when I got my quick scalp long on ER2 and new I had to ride out YM).
2.I made money.
3.I stopped trading because I started feeling happy.


Observations:
We had a double top in ZN and a double bottom in ES at 9:57 PFT. ZN was leading indicator for the big reversal.

Final thoughts:
You gotta love todays Volume and Volatility because it is scalpers dream.

Edit: Upon further analysis I could have traded better today. I should have stayed focused on trading the setups instead of my P/L. I missed out on making more money by looking at my account and felt that todays profit was good. I need to stay focused and trade the setups. Get rid of the P/L and unrealized P/L. Use your stops, accept small loses, and keep trading and look for potential runners when you got momentum.

Tuesday, 27 February 2007

HOLY CRAP Feb 27 daily chart



Well, I traded today, terribly to say the least, but still positive. I kept my composure and ended with the same profit as yesterday, kinda weird. I wasn't use to the volatility and found myself adding to losers, good thing I was right about holding on to some of my trades. I really need to work on just exiting a trade if it doesn't go my way within a few seconds after I enter. Maybe I should make as many trades a day as I can to get more experience like Dr. Steenbarger talks about in his book to advance my skill level, of course I would be doing this on the simulator until I get better. I really want to trade tommorow from the increase in volatility, but I realize at this point that I'm missing something to my trading that makes me the mediocre trader that I am. I'm missing the big picture and the skill to cut losers in seconds after entering them if need be. I should never be in a position that is more than 1.4pts against me when trading ER2, not even 0.7pts. The hardest thing for a trader is having a profit for the day and then going negative. You will fight back as best you can, but sometimes you just aren't on your game and you can self destruct if you don't set yourself with a risk limit for the day.

I have a feeling to go long, call me crazy, after the dow drops 500pts intraday, who would want to go long? I'm looking at crude oil, and its at where it opened for the day after spiking up 2 dollars intraday. If your good at trading then these times are golden. Why am I thinking to go long? Well, tell me why oil is not up and why gold sold off today? Bonds sold off all day today and the VIX looks like a ramp that evil kenivel would ride his motorcycle off of to the moon! I've been watching the relationship between oil, gold, bonds, and certain etfs, and I'm begining to think that there may be better strategy for me to trade than trading index futures. Right now, the problem is time, and getting experience to test my ideas. I need to write out a goal for what I want and I need to accomplish one goal at a time and move on to the next. I need an organized setup to my research and I need real time experience in order execution for scalping profits.

World market plunge

CNBC video of the markets dive.