Emerging Market Spotlight - China - Bloomberg

Strong Demand still in railroads, coal, water, oil, and agriculture commodities.

Emerging Market Spotlight - China - Bloomberg

Strong Demand still in railroads, coal, water, oil, and agriculture commodities.

Memorial Day

The markets are closed Today.

Anyone notice crude oil didn't change between Wednesday and Fridays close, yet gas prices at the pump in my city popped Friday by 5-15cents. One gas station I drive by everyday increased there prices on friday by 19 cents!($4.19 a gallon for unleaded, Diesel was at $5.09,,,,PS it wasn't a Chevron station,, but Chevron and Shell gas prices suck,,,I go to ARCO, or Valero, Valero has been sucking more tho because they charge you like an extra 3 cents/gallon if you don't pay with cash. Also, SAFEWAY gives you 3 cents off when you use your CLUBCARD,,which brings there prices down to ARCO's, overall, ARCO is best when living in NORCAL). Overall, Gas sucks this holiday.

I found a website called "STOP LOSS" that gives stock trade setups before the market open based on a few conditions (consecutive up/down days, unusual volume). I was thinking of posting stock trade setups based on my screeners as well because I think mine are dandy.

Also, I may start doing more videos, and start a new website. Why? Because I've got a new idea. Instead of a trading blog about success. I was thinking about a trading blog about failures. I seem to be a successful failure. (That phrase is copyrighted by HPT from this moment on).

I'm just waiting for the day when People flip out over oil and then we hear about another hedge fund blowing up. INCASE YOU DIDN"T KNOW, THE BEST INDICATOR TO TIMING MARKET REVERSALS IS WAITING FOR A HEDGE FUND TO BLOWUP.


AIRLINES====DEATH,,,they've could bounce big,,

Looking roughly at the funamentals, I like AMR over its competitors at it current price.


The bears are ass raping NUE. BEAR's attack quick, and deep, they also don't like holding for long periods because of that extra interest they are charged for being short.


I give you "The story of Ricky". This is just one of the many great fight scenes from this LEGEND MOVIE.

Profit taking in Oil before expiration

6 dollar trading range on Crude Oil = NUTS



One of the dumbest headlines I've read in awhile-



Notice how the further out contracts are trading less then the front month contracts.
Interesting to note that USO options have a lot of premium built in to the options for the months ahead, which makes me think that there could be an arbitrage trade between USO and CL.


April USO options

Oil Momentum pushes prices over $110

The idea seems that the run up in oil will continue until the March future contract expires.
"Oil prices actually fell after the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies jumped by 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrel forecast of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market."

Commodity prices and the Fed(good article by Econbrowser)

Major Themes continue

Gold and Oil continue up and weakness in Financials continue.



I think the trend in Gold will continue until the Fed reverses there position on interest rates. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I see inflation as a bigger problem right now than trying to maintain growth in the US by cutting interest rates. Bernanke said he cut rates to help restore confidence in the financial institutions. On January 21st, I probably would have done the same. However, I think the belief that the Fed is going to keep cutting rates and keep them down isn't going to play out for very long. Bernanke and company are smart guys, and the blame shouldn't be put on them. I agree with the senators complimenting Bernanke on being sincere in his statements and being straightforward in his remarks. It's interesting to note that one of the senators asked Bernanke today if he thought that reducing interest rates would help the economy and housing market. Mortgage rates are still high even though short term bond yields have come down. The idea of cutting interest rates to in effect lower mortgage rates and help boost buying in homes hasn't worked thus far.

While short term bond yields are lower, the long term bond yields haven't come down very far in comparison. It has been noted that any further interest rate cuts would in effect put the real rate negative when adjusted for the the current inflation rate. Bernanke is hoping inflation will stabilize and come down in the future and I think that as soon as inflation indicators (Oil,commodities) come down that the Fed may increase interest rates again, which would hopefully help the US dollar. The next FOMC meeting is going to be huge IMO, and I think there is potential for a sharp reversal in all markets shortly there after on what further actions the Fed takes after the next meeting.

5yr vs 30yr

OIL TO $100

By next week OIL will likely be over $100/barrel.
Reasons?
Do we really need reasons when we got pictures like this?

Oil Dropppping....

Today's highlights,,,,or possibly this weeks highlights are going to be the action that is happening in commodities like Oil and Gold. Check out USO-



That's all from me for now.

March 28 Trade Summary

Last night I stayed up till 1am trading the Euro and british pound on the simulator. I got up late, still feeling crappy from the flu, and wasted the morning watching the currencies and tried trading the swiss franc (CHF) by doing some correlation analysis between oil, gold, and the euro. I then watched oil and placed trades mentally.

I should have been trading ER2 this morning instead, because I have more experience trading it and there was easy money to be made this morning. I just didn't feel in the grove and was hesitant to take my trade signals this morning.

Market Observations:
It seems like we get a pop in the bond futures and JPY every morning and then you just see them getting faded for the rest of the day. Today I watched the morning initial balance, went back to sleep, came back and shorted VAH on ER2, and then took profits too soon as usual.

My thoughts on my Trading performance:
I'm bored and don't feel like trading or doing anything related to the stock market right now. I'm starting to worry because it's been over a month since I've had a losing day and each day the market seems like it is getting easier to read. I've had 2 or 3 losing days this year, with 2 of those days being big losing days. I'm starting to wonder when that next big losing day is going to come. I'm feeling a little hesitant lately and I think I know what it is. The problem is still there. My biggest problem of all. The "P/L". I wish this option on my trading workstation would just go away, as well as the account balance. I believe this is the problem that is holding me back from making more money. If I could go one day without looking at my P/L it would be a miracle. I'm deleting these features from my workstation right now. I don't know if I can hold out without knowing my daily P/L, but I'm going to make it my goal to try to do this for the next week. I tried this last month and I failed. I don't know if I'm the only person affected by this problem, but it is a major psychological barrier for me that is holding me back from becoming a better trader.

I feel like I've been in front of this computer for days. I actually look forward to having to go to work sometimes to take my mind off the market. If I'm not at work or the gym, I'm in front of this computer doing something related to the stock market, whether its trading or research. I know I need to post some charts on my favorite setups, but I really feel like going outside and getting away from the market for a bit. I'm gonna go rent that movie with Will Smith, "The pursuit of happiness", and maybe that will give me some motivation to work harder and become a better trader.

Quote of the day:
During the journey we commonly forget its goal. Almost every profession is chosen as a means to an end but continued as an end in itself. Forgetting our objectives is the most frequent act of stupidity.
-Friedrich Nietzsche