USD/JPY vs US Long Term Treasuries

USD/JPY vs US Long Term Treasuries

July 17 Mixed Trading after big rally

I kind of expected choppy action today after having a large bounce in the markets yesterday and it being the day before Options expire. I was up as much as 600, but then I lost some profits after I tried shorting(reversing from a long) too soon around the signal at 8:30am. I ended up losing about $180 on YM on that trade. The NYSE A/D ratio is slightly bullish today.



I got a 20 cent scalp on Crude Oil before we sold off. My scalp on Crude Oil was a long, and my trade on Gold was a short. Both positions would have been wrong if I were still holding them.



The bond futures are down again today. I expect Bond Yields to rise over the next few months. I'm not sure whats a better bet, (ie long term bonds or short term bonds). I think the FOMC will raise rates at the next meeting, and as noted in some of their FOMC minutes, they may raise rates aggressively to combat inflation and a crumbling US dollar. The effect of raising rates on Mortgage rates will probably make the housing market even worse. This is probably why Bernanke and Co have been holding rates steady, moreover; I imagine they see the housing market as a bigger threat to the US economy right now than the US dollars decline.

Yen/USD intermarket relationship

Daily chart view of Yen vs US dollar.
Overnight we made new highs, which caused some margin calls and a drop in Asian markets, with a setup for a gap down for US markets the next trading day.






US markets open, and resistance is seen in Yen and bond futures after a big run up. Profit taking in bonds leads to buying in US equities and a big
reversal after the DOW closes the day higher after
being down over 200pts in the morning trade.

Commodity inflation, Dollar new all time LOWS

Todays top performing sectors. (Trailer park homes and Toys & Hobbies? I guess the funds think since everyone is foreclosing that we are all going to have to move into trailer parks and buy manufactured homes, also since no one is buying new cars, money is flowing into auto part stores, because people will have to fix there own beaten up cars )


Great, now Yahoo finance is adding momentum to commodities.



With the US dollar at ALL TIME LOWS, Gold went straight up from open to close today. (20+pts)

THE US Dollar, now worth 66 cents in Europe. Good Heavens.......



Closing position (Bullish on ZF and ES, bearish on ZB and ER2 as usual)



Morning position


POT,,,,If you shorted this stock you don't have a POT to Pee in.


DBA, new Highs, Ride the Ags to $50


EWZ getting ready to make new highs. Brazil says, What bear market ?


India's market looks F$%Ked