Epic Crude Oil Short Squeeze

Largest Crude Oil Move ever comes a few days after the biggest Gold move ever, all happening STRATEGICALLY on OPEX expiry.



Live streaming video by Ustream

Epic Crude Oil Short Squeeze

Largest Crude Oil Move ever comes a few days after the biggest Gold move ever, all happening STRATEGICALLY on OPEX expiry.



Live streaming video by Ustream

July 21 Choppy Day after OPEX

I spent most the morning taking trades on the simulator and working on new audible alerts. I was a net loser on my simulator trades, but managed to scrape out a profit in my real account.


Big trading ranges seen in BAC and LEH.

I Needed about 30 minutes more patience for this trade to workout but kept getting stopped out of my long mid-day.



The NASDAQ A/D signals worked better than NYSE A/D signals today.Choppy trading in the bonds this morning with some bearishness in stocks.

July 18 OPEX Friday 9AM reversal

I took a short on NQ around 8:30am but it didn't fall; however, YM dropped 45pts during the same time period. This had me worried, so when I saw a potential bounce setup in YM I exited my NQ short.

Right after 9am, SMH (tech sector ETF) broke and NQ dropped sharply catching up with YM's decline.
I'm not sure if the 9 AM hour has significance, but it may with the overseas markets closing, so in the future I will track this time period on future OPEX days.


A Choppy OPEX as usual. I'm mad about my NQ trade, but I Hit my goal for the day so I'm done. I'm working on refining some indicators as a result of seeing Richards new Volume splatter indicator.



Here's a long scalp I got on ZB when I saw what looked to be a top in the stock indices.


This is a picture from my Simulated account. Remember a few months ago when I made the Poll asking if AMR was a buy at $7.00. Well I held that position for 2 months and actually closed it out for a profit today. I also made $3,000 this week trading 1 contract on YM and ZN, one of my best short term swing trades I've made in the simulator in such a short period. Over 350pts made in YM this week with just 2 trades.

Update on Sim acct.

You'll notice from my positions that my 2 biggest losers are from trying to catch a falling knife(AMR) and a space shuttle that recently launched for the moon(JRCC). All the other positions are typical and making money or slightly in the red. JRCC looked like it was overbought- it's ran about $20 or up 50% in the last 2 weeks. AMR looked oversold- Down $2 or 30% from where I bought it. Overall, I plan on holding AMR for a few more months to see how things pan out. I may have to cut the loss on JRCC, but I'm looking to see how it trades after OPEX.

Update on ISRG option trade

To get some practice trading earnings, I put on a trade on the simulator account yesterday.
I bought 100s ISRG, sold 1 ATM call strike 350, and bought 1 ATM put strike 350 which both expired today. I lost around $150 due to the crappy bid ask spread.

I sold the 100s of ISRG for a loss of -$4,121
Covered the call I Sold for $1,818
Sold the Put I bought for $2,098
Overall on this trade I lost $205, which is really breakeven when you subtract commissions, because I had to pay up due to the large Bid/Ask spread on this thinly traded stock.

I also sold 10 calls at the 400 strike which expired today.

I obtained the max profit of $3,243 on this trade.


Here's the P/L from the trades-

Apr 18, ISRG and GOOG earnings play

Traded first few hours. Put on a short AAPL trade right when my system gave me a long signal. Took a loss on AAPL, but was able to scalp the futures to end the day positive. I'm still not in my groove, that's why I've been keeping size down and not worrying about my P/L. I need to work on my risk management more, prove to myself that I can follow my system and trade signals, stay consistent, and then maybe I will start trading larger size.


Took a loss on AAPL. My trade signals worked great today on AAPL. I however suck at trading AAPL and did not follow my initial trade signal that popped right after I went short. This means I need more time trading smaller size until I start following my signals.
Tech very strong this morning-
GOOG---up over 90pts in a day after earnings......INCREDIBLE.

Wish I shorted this yesterday- ISRG down over 60pts on earnings-
Long Term view of GOOG- could head to 580 to test that 38% fib.
YM vs ZF- A look at inverse relationships between stocks and bonds. (overall I'm turning BEARISH on STOCKS going into next week because of this relationship)
A VIX chart I posted like 2 weeks ago, The price is right at the arrow I drew 2 weeks ago.

Earnings Option Play

ISRG is trading near all time highs and has earnings out after the bell today.
I've noticed that when stocks are near all time highs and look to be overvalued, that they tend to dissapoint. (except for FSLR which DT got screwed on when it gapped up like 50pts). Anyway, looking at the options on ISRG which expire tomorrow, you could sell some out of the money calls 50pts OTM and collect $300 for every contract so as long ISRG doesn't gap up over 50pts on earnings, putting it up over 400pts (which is ridiculous IMO). I think this stock is going to drop on earnings, however the healthcare feild is still going strong even during these times of economic instability ,,,cough,,recession...The risk of the trade, well if ISRG pops up say, 70pts, then you could be out around $2,000 for every contract. Needless to say, these options are juiced for a big move either way. If you wanted to hedge this trade, you could go long a certain amount of shares, or go long a further out call option, but the real money is going to be made selling the right options ahead of earnings.

To get some practive trading earnings, I've put on a trade on the simulator account.
I bought 100s ISRG, sold 1 ATM call strike 350, and bought 1 ATM put strike 350 which both expire tomorrow. I lost around $150 due to the crappy bid ask spread.



I also sold 10 calls at the 400 strike which expire tomorrow. Max profit is around $3,400 with unlimited risk of loss...



ISRG April Option ladder straddle view

ISRG near all time highs

Let the Madness commence...

This week will go down in the history books.

BSC being bought by JPM for $2 bucks. GS to announce big losses. Fed emergency rate cuts 25bp on Sunday night. Overseas market down over 3-4%. This is only the beginning.

This is the exact type of crap you would expect going into FOMC WEEK.

We are setting up for an extreme bear raid, but be careful of Bogus moves when OPEX approaches.

You have been warned.

Oil Momentum pushes prices over $110

The idea seems that the run up in oil will continue until the March future contract expires.
"Oil prices actually fell after the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies jumped by 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrel forecast of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market."

Commodity prices and the Fed(good article by Econbrowser)

Feb 15 OPEX Friday

OPEX Friday's can be real choppy as they were today.

OPEX and the Suprise interest rates

Are we still in a bear market?
Are Financials a buy?
What happened to our favorite words: Recession, Subprime, Capitulation?

Lets analyze a couple things.
Last summer, the market was going nuts over SUBPRIME, and then on OPEX day, SURPRISE interest rate cut, and the market is saved and rallies to new highs.

January, the market is going nuts over Recession, SUPRISE interest rate cut the day after OPEX, and the market is saved and rallies 1000pts in 2 weeks.

I notice that Mr. Stock Market and Bernanke conveniently have these SURPRISE interest rate cuts within a day of OPEX.

Is this a Coincidence or is there a reason to all this madness?

Dec 21 $500 on 64c and 1400shares

Could only trade the last 3 hours due to monitor problems. There was an OPEX related divergence between ER2 and the rest of the indices at market open ,(the shorts really got creamed on ER2).

Overall- $3,100 for the week.

OPEX Friday

The first 15min of market open are going to be critical today, with a GAP up on ES about 12pts right now, there is definitely some Bear Option traders getting beaten up. Watch for a falloff after the first 15min to see if this GAP holds up.