Crude Oil Intermarket Correlation vs AUD.JPY & Intraday Trend Analysis

As you can see from the charts, Crude Oil and the AUD/JPY have been highly correlated as of late. We see Crude as a buy when it is oversold relative to AUD/JPY and Crude as a sell when overbought relative to AUD/JPY.

In this chart you can see how AUD/USD put in a higher low when AUD/JPY & Crude Oil were putting in a low for the day, suggesting a bullish divergence.

A common theme intraday for Crude Oil has been a second initiation in buying/selling in the direction of VWAP around 1 to 1:30pm EST, with a close near the low/high of day.(Please note my charts are Pacific time- Add 3hrs for EST)

Crude Oil Intermarket Correlation vs AUD.JPY & Intraday Trend Analysis

As you can see from the charts, Crude Oil and the AUD/JPY have been highly correlated as of late. We see Crude as a buy when it is oversold relative to AUD/JPY and Crude as a sell when overbought relative to AUD/JPY.

In this chart you can see how AUD/USD put in a higher low when AUD/JPY & Crude Oil were putting in a low for the day, suggesting a bullish divergence.

A common theme intraday for Crude Oil has been a second initiation in buying/selling in the direction of VWAP around 1 to 1:30pm EST, with a close near the low/high of day.(Please note my charts are Pacific time- Add 3hrs for EST)

AUD/JPY Carry Trade and SP500 Correlation

There is a high correlation between the SP500 and AUD/JPY and also AUD/USD.
This chart shows SPY(SP500 vs AUD/JPY)

Australia's elections over the weekend has resulted in hung parliament, which will take some time to resolve once all the votes are counted. With Issues in Australia over elections we might see AUD/JPY selling (risk aversion/unwinding carry trade) and this will help the bears bring the SP500 down. We are also seeing continued strength in the USD/JPY and Treasuries which has caused weakness in Crude Oil and Copper due to the inverse correlation relationship. (Crude Oil and Metals like copper have high correlation to AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD).

The bear scenario for next week-
SELLING IN-AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY SP500, Crude Oil, and Copper
BUYING IN- JPY vs all currencies, 30yr bonds, and VIX

Here are some old Intermarket Correlation resources from ForexAutomaton the period 2002-2008-

Here are some links that look at Currency Correlation of the AUD/JPY vs SP500 and the current state of 30 year treasuries-

aud vs jpy

Presenting The New Correlation Regime: Treasury Butterflies And Risk | zero hedge

Visualizing The Past Of The Treasury Yield Curve, And Deconstructing The Great Confusion Surrounding Its Future | zero hedge

Will Tonight's AUD Slide Be The Start Of Another Major Market Selloff? | zero hedge

HomeTrader: SP500 update and AUDJPY , AUDCAD and EURUSD.

Lessons from the Pros - 06/15/2010 Issue - Stocks Article: Money for Leads?

ES-AUDJPY "Swiss Watch" Recoupling Means Money In The Bank For Divergence Chasers | zero hedge

... from IDEAtrader Suite

The Rational Move

News | Currency Trading News | Currency Quotes | Commentary | Analysts - FX 360>

Dollar Soars As S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex

The Strongest Forex Correlations | Kathy Lien | FX360.com

Commodity Currencies & SPX | Samadhi Research Investments

Forex @ DailyFX - Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations

Unwinding Of The AUD/JPY And Other Carry Trades Is Going To Take BHP Billiton Ever Lower - theyenguy -- Seeking Alpha

Chronic Deflation Will Send 30-Year Treasuries to 3% (Gary Shilling)

Australia election results point to hung parliament | World news | guardian.co.uk

AUD/JPY Carry Trade and SP500 Correlation

There is a high correlation between the SP500 and AUD/JPY and also AUD/USD.
This chart shows SPY(SP500 vs AUD/JPY)

Australia's elections over the weekend has resulted in hung parliament, which will take some time to resolve once all the votes are counted. With Issues in Australia over elections we might see AUD/JPY selling (risk aversion/unwinding carry trade) and this will help the bears bring the SP500 down. We are also seeing continued strength in the USD/JPY and Treasuries which has caused weakness in Crude Oil and Copper due to the inverse correlation relationship. (Crude Oil and Metals like copper have high correlation to AUD/USD, CAD/USD, and NZD/USD).

The bear scenario for next week-
SELLING IN-AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY SP500, Crude Oil, and Copper
BUYING IN- JPY vs all currencies, 30yr bonds, and VIX

Here are some old Intermarket Correlation resources from ForexAutomaton the period 2002-2008-

Here are some links that look at Currency Correlation of the AUD/JPY vs SP500 and the current state of 30 year treasuries-

aud vs jpy

Presenting The New Correlation Regime: Treasury Butterflies And Risk | zero hedge

Visualizing The Past Of The Treasury Yield Curve, And Deconstructing The Great Confusion Surrounding Its Future | zero hedge

Will Tonight's AUD Slide Be The Start Of Another Major Market Selloff? | zero hedge

HomeTrader: SP500 update and AUDJPY , AUDCAD and EURUSD.

Lessons from the Pros - 06/15/2010 Issue - Stocks Article: Money for Leads?

ES-AUDJPY "Swiss Watch" Recoupling Means Money In The Bank For Divergence Chasers | zero hedge

... from IDEAtrader Suite

The Rational Move

News | Currency Trading News | Currency Quotes | Commentary | Analysts - FX 360>

Dollar Soars As S&P500 Hits 5 Year Lows - Forex Analysis, Currency Forecast, FX Trading Signal - Action Forex

The Strongest Forex Correlations | Kathy Lien | FX360.com

Commodity Currencies & SPX | Samadhi Research Investments

Forex @ DailyFX - Currency Correlations Tighten Through Risk and Dollar-Based Foundations

Unwinding Of The AUD/JPY And Other Carry Trades Is Going To Take BHP Billiton Ever Lower - theyenguy -- Seeking Alpha

Chronic Deflation Will Send 30-Year Treasuries to 3% (Gary Shilling)

Australia election results point to hung parliament | World news | guardian.co.uk

QuoteTracker Chart Tutorial to Compare Symbols

This Video goes over how to add multiple symbols on the same chart like NYSE TICK and NYSE A/D for quotetracker, and how to make custom indicators.

QuoteTracker Chart Tutorial to Compare Symbols

This Video goes over how to add multiple symbols on the same chart like NYSE TICK and NYSE A/D for quotetracker, and how to make custom indicators.

Crude Oil Rally

Crude Oil Rallied, there was a bigger than expected decrease in crude oil and gas inventories.
Bond Futures Rallied, there is a clear inverse relationship between bonds and stocks still.
I had a bad headache and left my desk at 8:30am. Soon after I left volatility came and I missed some great moves. It was probably for the better though.
I got short ER2 when the Oil number was released only to see ER2 drop a couple ticks and then spike and stop me out, meanwhile, YM dropped 60 pts, I was very frustrated after seeing this move. I should have known better that the divergence between the two was a setup for short on YM and not ER2. I was also long the Euro before the oil number and I made $100 on that trade.

July 25 Trades

Traded for 40min mid-day. Traded 5 contracts.

Long ZN, Short ER2. (I exited ER2 too soon; however, I re-entered short via YM, also, I expected my ZN trade to work out sooner but gave it time and exited at my sell signal)

Stock Bond Euro Intermarket Relationship

July 14-24, 2008 (The general theme is bond futures and the Euro trade in tandem while at the same time inverse to the stock market)
July 14

July 15

July 16

July 17

July 18

July 21

July 22

July 23

July 24

July 24 XLF and XLE inverse relationship

Bond futures bounced today and financials sold off in early morning trading.

The inverse relationship between XLE and XLF (Oil Sector vs Financial Sector)


I was anticipating bond futures to bounce today with the recent retest of bond yields near June highs.(As bond Yields go down, bond futures go up). Rick Santelli may be giving a news related reason as to why yields dropped today, but I see it as nothing more than a technical setup.


In the simulator account I sold my 1 contract long on ZF (2 year bond future) from a few days ago and 2 cards on ZN that I averaged into over the last week. Bond Futures are probably the easiest product to understand.


I Slept in and missed the morning selloff. I should have gotten up early and went long ZN and short YM. Oh'well.