The sound and video doesn't line up correctly, sorry.
Showing posts with label Bernanke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bernanke. Show all posts
Wednesday, 24 September 2008
Tuesday, 23 September 2008
Tuesday, 16 September 2008
AIG bailout- help save the world
I can't help but laugh at the auctions going on at Ebay. Last night I saw an auction for Lehman Brothers for 99 million. This one is even better. AIG save the world Bag
The Sellers name is hopingforseverance and this is the description of the Bag-
"As you may have heard, an AIG collapse is imminent and would cause a catastrophic global economic depression. In order to stave off such a catastrophic event AIG needs $20 Billion in capital. Therefore, to rescue the world from this debacle, I am auctioning off this authentic AIG Emergency Bag in hopes of raising the required $40 Billion. This very stylish bag can be used as a backpack during both emergency and non-emergency situations and can hold up to $75 Billion (must use really large denomination bills) which is exactly the amount needed to salvage AIG from ruin. Although not photographed here, the bag comes with a pair of goggles and a gas mask issued to me on orientation day at AIG. The gas mask is unused, however I did put the goggles on a few times and run around the office (Christmas parties, Wednesdays, things like that)."
In real news- The Government is Bailing out AIG for $75 Billion.
"The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would provide up to $85 billion in an emergency, two-year loan to rescue AIG, which teetered on the edge of failure because of stresses caused by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and the credit crunch that ensued. In return, the government will get a 79.9 percent stake in AIG and the right to remove senior management.")(Reuters)
Tuesday, 18 March 2008
March 18 FOMC announcement
Here's the video- The top right chart is the Euro, bottom left is ZN (10yr bond future), and the right chart is ES (SP 500 future).
Sorry for the High Probability Trading watermark, I should have made it more transparent but I'm too busy to go back and fix it.Unfortunately my computer got the "Blue screen of death" while recording, and this is all the video I was able to recover. The one thing I can take away from today is that Vista sucks.
Sorry for the High Probability Trading watermark, I should have made it more transparent but I'm too busy to go back and fix it.Unfortunately my computer got the "Blue screen of death" while recording, and this is all the video I was able to recover. The one thing I can take away from today is that Vista sucks.
Thursday, 28 February 2008
Major Themes continue
Gold and Oil continue up and weakness in Financials continue.
I think the trend in Gold will continue until the Fed reverses there position on interest rates. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I see inflation as a bigger problem right now than trying to maintain growth in the US by cutting interest rates. Bernanke said he cut rates to help restore confidence in the financial institutions. On January 21st, I probably would have done the same. However, I think the belief that the Fed is going to keep cutting rates and keep them down isn't going to play out for very long. Bernanke and company are smart guys, and the blame shouldn't be put on them. I agree with the senators complimenting Bernanke on being sincere in his statements and being straightforward in his remarks. It's interesting to note that one of the senators asked Bernanke today if he thought that reducing interest rates would help the economy and housing market. Mortgage rates are still high even though short term bond yields have come down. The idea of cutting interest rates to in effect lower mortgage rates and help boost buying in homes hasn't worked thus far.
While short term bond yields are lower, the long term bond yields haven't come down very far in comparison. It has been noted that any further interest rate cuts would in effect put the real rate negative when adjusted for the the current inflation rate. Bernanke is hoping inflation will stabilize and come down in the future and I think that as soon as inflation indicators (Oil,commodities) come down that the Fed may increase interest rates again, which would hopefully help the US dollar. The next FOMC meeting is going to be huge IMO, and I think there is potential for a sharp reversal in all markets shortly there after on what further actions the Fed takes after the next meeting.
5yr vs 30yr
I think the trend in Gold will continue until the Fed reverses there position on interest rates. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I see inflation as a bigger problem right now than trying to maintain growth in the US by cutting interest rates. Bernanke said he cut rates to help restore confidence in the financial institutions. On January 21st, I probably would have done the same. However, I think the belief that the Fed is going to keep cutting rates and keep them down isn't going to play out for very long. Bernanke and company are smart guys, and the blame shouldn't be put on them. I agree with the senators complimenting Bernanke on being sincere in his statements and being straightforward in his remarks. It's interesting to note that one of the senators asked Bernanke today if he thought that reducing interest rates would help the economy and housing market. Mortgage rates are still high even though short term bond yields have come down. The idea of cutting interest rates to in effect lower mortgage rates and help boost buying in homes hasn't worked thus far.
While short term bond yields are lower, the long term bond yields haven't come down very far in comparison. It has been noted that any further interest rate cuts would in effect put the real rate negative when adjusted for the the current inflation rate. Bernanke is hoping inflation will stabilize and come down in the future and I think that as soon as inflation indicators (Oil,commodities) come down that the Fed may increase interest rates again, which would hopefully help the US dollar. The next FOMC meeting is going to be huge IMO, and I think there is potential for a sharp reversal in all markets shortly there after on what further actions the Fed takes after the next meeting.
5yr vs 30yr
Friday, 1 February 2008
OPEX and the Suprise interest rates
Are we still in a bear market?
Are Financials a buy?
What happened to our favorite words: Recession, Subprime, Capitulation?
Lets analyze a couple things.
Last summer, the market was going nuts over SUBPRIME, and then on OPEX day, SURPRISE interest rate cut, and the market is saved and rallies to new highs.
January, the market is going nuts over Recession, SUPRISE interest rate cut the day after OPEX, and the market is saved and rallies 1000pts in 2 weeks.
I notice that Mr. Stock Market and Bernanke conveniently have these SURPRISE interest rate cuts within a day of OPEX.
Is this a Coincidence or is there a reason to all this madness?
Thursday, 8 November 2007
Ron Paul OWNED Bernanke!
How are American Senior Citizens suppose to live with rising inflation and medical costs.
Spot on.
I feel bad for Bernanke, what do you expect him to say?
Honestly, what's Ron Pauls' plan,,,,get rid of the FOMC, IRS, abolish taxes, and bring the soldiers home......That seems like a fairy tale if you asked me.
CATASTROPHIC BLOWUP!!!!!!!!! (-$12,000..........)
GOT your Attenti0n?
Well that would have been today's headline if my prayers from the 12-0-clock reversal GODS didn't come true. I would like to thank the Traders in Citigroup and Maria Bartiroma for the last hour BUY programs that saved my ass.
Honestly, I shorted ZB twice today, getting a good winner on both.
On ER2 I went long from a BUY STOP getting hit right after the Bernanke speech(it was the high of the day before the huge selloff, my buy stop got hit 3 ticks out of the money and was red 7 ticks in seconds.....). I ended up adding to that long,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,for a long,,,,,,,,,time. I admit, today I SCREWED UP BIG TIME.
I held my long on ER2 through the lows, while watching bond futures hit resistance during the mid-day,,,,which helped me UNDERTAKE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF PAIN as I watched my account take a STAGGERING HIT.
As my pain an suffering were at a threshold of around 8.5,,, I got software issues from IB. Thank you IB, for having another SPOOKY malfuncitoning,,,you guessed it, right around at the LOWS OF THE DAY.....Look at my workstation.............WTF?????????
(think to yourself, don't panic, this market will reverse.........)
If things couldn't get any worse I was getting calls from work, wanting me to come to work today because someone called out sick.....Meanwhile......
I left my account alone while we continued lower. I listened to the family members in my house argue about how the internet connection had stopped working,,,,that really got me stressing, however during the argument, I kept hearing in the conversation "just be patient with it, the internet connection will come back up", ,,,,,,,,,and that is what I did with my position, I was patient with it, and I let it come back up.
Today's total-
$1,300 on 60 contracts
I'm going to do some hard analysis of what would have occurred today if I had followed my trade signals. I'm sure the readers are just as disgusted as I am with reading how I almost screwed up big time today. I said in the past that I wouldn't let this happen. I blame it on my old intuition trades and not following the trading signals. Maybe today will be the last day I let this happen, I don't know, but I sure hope it is.
Now I'm off to the library to study for a test later this afternoon. My stomach feels bad and I'm light headed,,,time for some caffeine......
Well that would have been today's headline if my prayers from the 12-0-clock reversal GODS didn't come true. I would like to thank the Traders in Citigroup and Maria Bartiroma for the last hour BUY programs that saved my ass.
Honestly, I shorted ZB twice today, getting a good winner on both.
On ER2 I went long from a BUY STOP getting hit right after the Bernanke speech(it was the high of the day before the huge selloff, my buy stop got hit 3 ticks out of the money and was red 7 ticks in seconds.....). I ended up adding to that long,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,for a long,,,,,,,,,time. I admit, today I SCREWED UP BIG TIME.
I held my long on ER2 through the lows, while watching bond futures hit resistance during the mid-day,,,,which helped me UNDERTAKE IMMENSE AMOUNT OF PAIN as I watched my account take a STAGGERING HIT.
As my pain an suffering were at a threshold of around 8.5,,, I got software issues from IB. Thank you IB, for having another SPOOKY malfuncitoning,,,you guessed it, right around at the LOWS OF THE DAY.....Look at my workstation.............WTF?????????
(think to yourself, don't panic, this market will reverse.........)
If things couldn't get any worse I was getting calls from work, wanting me to come to work today because someone called out sick.....Meanwhile......
I left my account alone while we continued lower. I listened to the family members in my house argue about how the internet connection had stopped working,,,,that really got me stressing, however during the argument, I kept hearing in the conversation "just be patient with it, the internet connection will come back up", ,,,,,,,,,and that is what I did with my position, I was patient with it, and I let it come back up.
Today's total-
$1,300 on 60 contracts
I'm going to do some hard analysis of what would have occurred today if I had followed my trade signals. I'm sure the readers are just as disgusted as I am with reading how I almost screwed up big time today. I said in the past that I wouldn't let this happen. I blame it on my old intuition trades and not following the trading signals. Maybe today will be the last day I let this happen, I don't know, but I sure hope it is.
Now I'm off to the library to study for a test later this afternoon. My stomach feels bad and I'm light headed,,,time for some caffeine......
Bernanke speech
Watching Bernanke on CNBC right now-
The highlights so far-
Question- "what are the odds of a recession on a scale of 1 to 10?"
Ben- "Economists aren't good at forecasting,,,,,,,,I'm not answering that question"
NQ is leading to the downside, ER2 showing more support.
XLE and oil related stocks are strongest, XLF and financials suck as usual.
UPDATE-
RON PAUL just layed the SMACK DOWN ON BERNANKE!!
OWNED!
The highlights so far-
Question- "what are the odds of a recession on a scale of 1 to 10?"
Ben- "Economists aren't good at forecasting,,,,,,,,I'm not answering that question"
NQ is leading to the downside, ER2 showing more support.
XLE and oil related stocks are strongest, XLF and financials suck as usual.
UPDATE-
RON PAUL just layed the SMACK DOWN ON BERNANKE!!
OWNED!