Saturday, 21 August 2010
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Richard Fuld - Walks away with 500 million
Lehman Brothers was the largest US Bankruptcy at $691 Billion dollars.
The CEO; Richard Fuld, walked away with around 500 million dollars.
This video is just a reminder as to how truly messed up things were less then 2 years ago.
Richard
The CEO; Richard Fuld, walked away with around 500 million dollars.
This video is just a reminder as to how truly messed up things were less then 2 years ago.
Richard
Richard Fuld - Walks away with 500 million
Lehman Brothers was the largest US Bankruptcy at $691 Billion dollars.
The CEO; Richard Fuld, walked away with around 500 million dollars.
This video is just a reminder as to how truly messed up things were less then 2 years ago.
Richard
The CEO; Richard Fuld, walked away with around 500 million dollars.
This video is just a reminder as to how truly messed up things were less then 2 years ago.
Richard
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Long End Treasury Yields Falling
With the 2 year Note Yield at record lows and the 5 year near record lows, I wanted to examine how much further they could fall and how much further the 30 year bond could fall to catchup to the levels seen when the 30 year made record lows December 18, 2008.
The Chart below shows yields on the 2,5,10, and 30 year going back to January 2008.
The Chart below shows the yield spread between the 30 vs 2, 30 vs 5. I also divided the 30 yr by the 2 year and the 30 year by 5 year to see the spread at a more magnified view.
The 2 year has breached 2008 lows and is making new record lows, while the 5 year is 20 basis points from the low of 1.266 set December 18,2008. The 30 year has a long way to go if it is to catchup to the yields it saw during December 2008 lows. Given the Short end of the curve has already hit or is near record lows, how much further does the 30 year have to drop to catchup?
The 30 year made a record low of 2.53% on December 18, 2008, which means as of Fridays close the 30 year trading at 3.87% would have to drop 1.34% or 134 basis points to retest those record lows.
With ZB currently trading around 132, we could expect ZB to rise all the way to 142 if yields are to retest December 2008 lows.
Here is a chart of ZB Trading Today August 15, 2010.
Here is a chart of ZB trading under the March 2008 contract during the period of December 2008.
Here is a good article from Bond Squawk on Negative Tip spreads.
If negative TIP spreads don't currently forecast rising inflation, but just a reduction in forecast GDP and economic growth, then would gold be a good investment? Most people believe gold is a good inflation hedge; however, Mish Economic Analysis found Gold to be a better investment during periods of Deflation as opposed to periods of Inflation.
So what should we do? Bet on Deflation and a possible double dip recession? Buy the long end of bonds, go long gold, and stay out of stocks? We shall see in time what happens.
The Chart below shows yields on the 2,5,10, and 30 year going back to January 2008.
The Chart below shows the yield spread between the 30 vs 2, 30 vs 5. I also divided the 30 yr by the 2 year and the 30 year by 5 year to see the spread at a more magnified view.
The 2 year has breached 2008 lows and is making new record lows, while the 5 year is 20 basis points from the low of 1.266 set December 18,2008. The 30 year has a long way to go if it is to catchup to the yields it saw during December 2008 lows. Given the Short end of the curve has already hit or is near record lows, how much further does the 30 year have to drop to catchup?
The 30 year made a record low of 2.53% on December 18, 2008, which means as of Fridays close the 30 year trading at 3.87% would have to drop 1.34% or 134 basis points to retest those record lows.
With ZB currently trading around 132, we could expect ZB to rise all the way to 142 if yields are to retest December 2008 lows.
Here is a chart of ZB Trading Today August 15, 2010.
Here is a chart of ZB trading under the March 2008 contract during the period of December 2008.
Here is a good article from Bond Squawk on Negative Tip spreads.
If negative TIP spreads don't currently forecast rising inflation, but just a reduction in forecast GDP and economic growth, then would gold be a good investment? Most people believe gold is a good inflation hedge; however, Mish Economic Analysis found Gold to be a better investment during periods of Deflation as opposed to periods of Inflation.
So what should we do? Bet on Deflation and a possible double dip recession? Buy the long end of bonds, go long gold, and stay out of stocks? We shall see in time what happens.
Long End Treasury Yields Falling
With the 2 year Note Yield at record lows and the 5 year near record lows, I wanted to examine how much further they could fall and how much further the 30 year bond could fall to catchup to the levels seen when the 30 year made record lows December 18, 2008.
The Chart below shows yields on the 2,5,10, and 30 year going back to January 2008.
The Chart below shows the yield spread between the 30 vs 2, 30 vs 5. I also divided the 30 yr by the 2 year and the 30 year by 5 year to see the spread at a more magnified view.
The 2 year has breached 2008 lows and is making new record lows, while the 5 year is 20 basis points from the low of 1.266 set December 18,2008. The 30 year has a long way to go if it is to catchup to the yields it saw during December 2008 lows. Given the Short end of the curve has already hit or is near record lows, how much further does the 30 year have to drop to catchup?
The 30 year made a record low of 2.53% on December 18, 2008, which means as of Fridays close the 30 year trading at 3.87% would have to drop 1.34% or 134 basis points to retest those record lows.
With ZB currently trading around 132, we could expect ZB to rise all the way to 142 if yields are to retest December 2008 lows.
Here is a chart of ZB Trading Today August 15, 2010.
Here is a chart of ZB trading under the March 2008 contract during the period of December 2008.
Here is a good article from Bond Squawk on Negative Tip spreads.
If negative TIP spreads don't currently forecast rising inflation, but just a reduction in forecast GDP and economic growth, then would gold be a good investment? Most people believe gold is a good inflation hedge; however, Mish Economic Analysis found Gold to be a better investment during periods of Deflation as opposed to periods of Inflation.
So what should we do? Bet on Deflation and a possible double dip recession? Buy the long end of bonds, go long gold, and stay out of stocks? We shall see in time what happens.
The Chart below shows yields on the 2,5,10, and 30 year going back to January 2008.
The Chart below shows the yield spread between the 30 vs 2, 30 vs 5. I also divided the 30 yr by the 2 year and the 30 year by 5 year to see the spread at a more magnified view.
The 2 year has breached 2008 lows and is making new record lows, while the 5 year is 20 basis points from the low of 1.266 set December 18,2008. The 30 year has a long way to go if it is to catchup to the yields it saw during December 2008 lows. Given the Short end of the curve has already hit or is near record lows, how much further does the 30 year have to drop to catchup?
The 30 year made a record low of 2.53% on December 18, 2008, which means as of Fridays close the 30 year trading at 3.87% would have to drop 1.34% or 134 basis points to retest those record lows.
With ZB currently trading around 132, we could expect ZB to rise all the way to 142 if yields are to retest December 2008 lows.
Here is a chart of ZB Trading Today August 15, 2010.
Here is a chart of ZB trading under the March 2008 contract during the period of December 2008.
Here is a good article from Bond Squawk on Negative Tip spreads.
If negative TIP spreads don't currently forecast rising inflation, but just a reduction in forecast GDP and economic growth, then would gold be a good investment? Most people believe gold is a good inflation hedge; however, Mish Economic Analysis found Gold to be a better investment during periods of Deflation as opposed to periods of Inflation.
So what should we do? Bet on Deflation and a possible double dip recession? Buy the long end of bonds, go long gold, and stay out of stocks? We shall see in time what happens.
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
Live Futures and Stock Trading Chat Room at Justin.TV
Stop by the Trading Room. I host a live trading group of mainly ES, Crude, Gold, and momentum stock Traders. Anyone is free to join, but we have mods who don't hesitate to ban people who don't take trading seriously.
Watch live video from High Probability Trading on Justin.tv
Watch live video from High Probability Trading on Justin.tv
Live Futures and Stock Trading Chat Room at Justin.TV
Stop by the Trading Room. I host a live trading group of mainly ES, Crude, Gold, and momentum stock Traders. Anyone is free to join, but we have mods who don't hesitate to ban people who don't take trading seriously.
Watch live video from High Probability Trading on Justin.tv
Watch live video from High Probability Trading on Justin.tv
Saturday, 31 July 2010
OEC Special Offer on Commission
The fine print says you must open an OEC EQUITIES account, which is 25k, and a futures account is another 5k. So, I assume they want you to open both, 30k total, and then you can get the good deal on the futures trades. I've never personally traded through them, but I've tested their platform out and it gets the job done and it has a risk manager and the ability to automate trade ideas which is a big plus.
OEC Special Offer on Commission
The fine print says you must open an OEC EQUITIES account, which is 25k, and a futures account is another 5k. So, I assume they want you to open both, 30k total, and then you can get the good deal on the futures trades. I've never personally traded through them, but I've tested their platform out and it gets the job done and it has a risk manager and the ability to automate trade ideas which is a big plus.
Tuesday, 20 July 2010
Housing Market Recovery Precursors
I'm watching to see if the lows have been made for Lumber and Copper, as they are vital ingredients to building houses.
Lumber Today- July 20, 2010
Lumber trading 1977
Copper setting up with a rising wedge pattern off summer lows.
Lumber Today- July 20, 2010
Lumber trading 1977
Copper setting up with a rising wedge pattern off summer lows.
Housing Market Recovery Precursors
I'm watching to see if the lows have been made for Lumber and Copper, as they are vital ingredients to building houses.
Lumber Today- July 20, 2010
Lumber trading 1977
Copper setting up with a rising wedge pattern off summer lows.
Lumber Today- July 20, 2010
Lumber trading 1977
Copper setting up with a rising wedge pattern off summer lows.
Sunday, 18 July 2010
Treasury Yield Spreads
