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Tuesday, 22 July 2008

US dollar rallies, Crude drops, and the stock market rallies

The August Front month Crude Oil Contract expires today. Oil is down again. I'm expecting a bounce during this short term down trend.

The Euro tanked hard, taking with it Gold and Crude oil.
Bond Yields rose sharply today on a bad auction of the 20yr TIPS. With Bond Yields on the rise, the stock market filled its morning gap.
From Reuters-NEW YORK, July 22 - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Tuesday after a $6 billion auction of reopened 20-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities garnered soft demand, traders said.The nominal 30-year Treasury bond fell one full point in price for a yield of 4.68 percent , versus 4.62 percent late on Monday.
13 contracts traded. I did terrible today. I made the mistake of trying to trade crude oil. I only have enough margin right now to trade 1 contract, so I had all my capital tied up in a bad trade while the market rallied. Of course I sold my crude oil $1,000 too soon for a second day in a row. Overall, I'm going to do my best to avoid crude oil. My niche is stock futures, I have no edge trading crude oil. I came close to losing today, but I stuck with it and turned a small profit.
With the action in bonds and with the current Fed speak on interest rates, I'm expecting an interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting.

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